Global Gazing: Britain's Future Role in the World
Lets build bridges not fortresses
Transcending geopolitics, and war, is key to creating the new civilization. If we do not, then we will indeed extinct ourselves. Below is a reflection on the UK’s role in the world, but much of it could apply to the USA, where I have also spent a lot of time, and the West more broadly.
Last November I attended and spoke at Anthropy, a wonderful event held at the Eden Project where leaders came together to vision the future of Britain. It was established by a retired British military officer, John O’Brien who thought that surely this country could do better than what the current politicians were offering! I think John has done an amazing job pulling together incredible leaders and visionaries from across the country. I agree with him, Britain can do better than this! This is even clearer as we go through an election campaign here.
My panel last year was called “Global Gazing: Britain’s ability to navigate the future.” I was joined by Sir John Holmes (former ambassador) Tina Fordham (Fordham Global Foresight), Daniel Bruce (Transparency International) and the moderator Jim Donaldson. I never finished writing up the event, but given whats happened since I feel compelled to do so.
My central message was that I wish we could just get colonialism and empire behind us, avoid resisting the new multipolar world and embrace our innate gifts of trade, innovation, science and creativity. I do not see the world in terms of geopolitical dangers, but full of opportunities if we abandon our imperialistic attitude in foreign policy. My fellow panelists, who were incredibly accomplished and quite friendly to me, thought I was a bit naive at times. However, I was rewarded at the end when a bunch of students invited me to lunch and one of the Anthropy organisers (who shall remain nameless) said he agreed with my uplifting vision. I do see positive futures for the UK - and of course I see quite negative if not fatal futures.
This is the basic message with some updates since then.
Backdrop
Some - if not, many - commentators regard the United Kingdom somewhat lost at sea. After severing itself from the European Union, the lack of visionary leadership at the political level (just look at the current election) , and the return of geopolitics (power rivalries and geopolitical rifts) one can easily paint a dark future ahead. A number of my fellow panelists emphasised the worst geopolitical backdrop they have ever seen.
Dean Acheson famously pronounced in 1962 - one year before Britain first attempted to join the EEC - that Britain had "lost an empire, and failed to find a role". Are we back there?
I am very optimistic about the role Britain can again potentially play in this new world if we can finally drop colonial attitudes and embrace our natural gifts.
But I just want to acknowledge the risks first.
Brexit and More Fracture
The quality of the referendum debate in 2016 was terrible - from BOTH sides. Neither side really had a positive and coherent vision of the future. The ‘Remain’ camp with its ‘Project Fear’ was actually worse, so no wonder that the ‘Leave’ vote won. I cannot recollect any politician painting a positive image of a future in which Britain thrived in a successful (and perhaps reformed) EU. I wish they had.
One challenging knock on impact is that longer term, the UK might further fragment: Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and even other regions might push for independence. Who knows, there might be a “League of Independent Celtic States.” [The USA might similarly fragment by the way]. Many other nations around the world might also fragment going forwards (even theUSA).
The shorter term centrifugal force is Scottish independence. Whenever central government loses credibility (whether Labour or Conservative), the movement for independence- always lurking in the background - can reappear. Scottish independence is a nightmare risk for military planners. It was the Act of Union in 1707, that protected England from foreign adversaries (like France) meddling on the island. This possibility arises again in theory. But one of the most immediate impacts is that the UK’s nuclear deterrent at Faslane would need to be moved. The options are actually not very good at all - even Devonport is not ideal for a variety of reasons. Short term, the implosion of the SNP has slowed this momentum down. But it continues to be a risk.
The Rise of Eurasia
The biggest risk to me is that the UK seems to be in complete denial that we have already transitioned to a multipolar world. And as the UK has stepped away from the EU, we have taken a foreseeable step closer to the USA, and our other Five Eye partners, which in even greater denial of that transition.
On the surface, it looks like the West still controls all the power centres. But the economic reality is that China is now the largest economy in PPP terms and India is rapidly catching up. I saw that Russia, despite our sanctions, is up at No 4. My friend Hugh Peyman recently published a book called American as Number 3 highlighting some of these trends. International organisations that Westerners have never heard of - such as the Shanghai Co Operation Organisation - are gaining in power. The newly expanded BRICs has a larger economy than the G7 in PPP terms. Militarily the gap is also closing.
I had just flown back from Istanbul and had read a book by Berat Albayrak, a former Minister of Turkiye, on the way back. This quote - which I read to my panel - struck me as epitomising sentiment and comments I hear on my travels all around the world - across Asia, the Americas, Africa and beyond.
“Before going there, I had thought too highly of the United States. It seemed like a massive structure at the centre of the world that made one feel extremely small. Its size and skyscrapers were intimidating - and its system all controlling. If you failed to catch up, it could swallow you whole. Over time, however, I realised we exaggerated them in our eyes, yet failed to be sufficiently aware of ourselves. That awareness, whose seeds had been planted in my childhood years, thus grew much more rapidly, looking in the mirror of another society. That mirror showed me much more clearly our own power in humanitarian, conscientious, and societal terms. I came to appreciate the depth of our history and the vastness of our spiritual geography.”
I do not think we in the West quite realises how quickly our economic, moral and even military strength is diminishing around the world .
He went on to write:
“The world is heading toward a great clash between the East and the West. We are beginning to experience the transformation of the world’s 500 year-old ecosystem.”
Building Bridges - Diplomacy
That clash might have commenced in the 6 months since that talk. The West led by the American Empire, seems to be in three conflicts, which are all transpiring at different temperatures: Ukraine, Gaza, and China. All of them will weaken the West, both hard and soft power.
The hottest and perhaps most dangerous short term risk is the proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. This did not start with the incursion of Russian troops in February 2022 as the Western media commonly explains. There is a long history of Western interference which led to that fateful action. I might cite the history in a future post as this is not the place - but you can look up comments by credible geopolitical analysts such as Professor Mearsheimer or the leaked diplomatic cables from former ambassadors and intelligence officials warning against the US and NATO not to expand Eastwards . But I implore you to consider peace as a solution.
"We may be going towards a third world war because if you press Russia too much and you appear to be wanting to conquer Russia, they may want to use nuclear weapons -- that is going to damage the whole world."
"The U.S. regards anybody who challenges them as the enemy, which is why we have problems involving the U.S. with Iran, Russia and China. The U.S. is not tolerant. People cannot be 100% exactly like you; we accept the differences," he said, adding that Americans have not learned any lessons from past wars.”
The Real Opportunity - Cultural, Moral and Conscious Leadership
My key message was that we should abandon colonialism and empire. Lets not erect a Fortress Five Eyes (the 5 nations which are part of the intelligence gathering organisation) and a more assertive NATO to take on a war which we are unlikely to win. Lets prohibit overseas arms sales immediately - let’s become a pacifist nation and embrace soft power , which will rise exponentially.
My optimistic and uplifting vision of the UK is based on the fact that we have immense creativity. A cursory look at some of the charts below show you where we should focus our energies. Just let your attention go to the following charts …
Soft Power
The UK does have a brand value and punches far above its weight. We can harness this for all sorts of endeavours. I think if we renounce war and violence, this soft power will be more sustainable going forwards.
University and Education
Currently many of the world’s most highly regarded universities are in the UK. In many cutting edge fields - from leaders in the new economics to quantum computing - we are still generating leaders.
https://www.studyinchina.com.my/web/page/top-10-countries-for-university-education/
Cultural Power House
British music and culture is exported all around the world. Since moving back to the UK I have been surprised of the degree to which it still influences culturally, whether its Britains Got Talent, The Voice or new music bands.
Sporting Super Power - everyone knows about Wimbledon and the Premier League
The UK invented many popular sports and it also hosts them at the highest level. In many cases - like football and tennis - it benefits significantly from being a host for the sport at the. highest level.
Literature
The UK has a track record of exporting literature. The Hay Festival - “the woodstock for the mind” - is regarded as the number 1 literary festival in the world.
A country that exported Shakespeare, the Beetles, liberal democracy and the. bicameral chamber, Wimbledon and the Premier League. the Scientific Revolution, technologies like AI, world class universities like Oxford, Cambridge and London, can and should adapt to the times. I think we would benefit signficantly from abandoning the sales of the weapons of war and interfering in the governance of countries overseas.
We do not need to export division and violence or resist change. The UK has all the gifts to flourish in the future which I imagine: lets just welcome the new era and not fight it.
News
I will be speaking at the Horasis India event in September and then taking some leaders to the Oracle of Delphi to vision the future .This will be there-eminent gathering of Indian leaders overseas after the election this year.
Embassy of the Future is looking for partners for this event at the UK’s leading retreat centre where we will imagineer the 2030s with leading visionaries across AI, geopolitics, economics, Bitcoin, ecology and more.